Bits or shots in combat? The generalized Deitchman model of guerrilla warfare

We generalize Deitchman’s guerrilla warfare model to account for trade-off between intelligence (‘bits’) and firepower (‘shots’). Intelligent targeting leads to aimed fire; absence of intelligence leads to unaimed fire, dependent on targets’ density. We propose a new Lanchester-type model that mixes aimed and unaimed fire, the balance between these being determined by quality of information. We derive the model’s conserved quantity, and use it to analyze the trade-off between investments in intelligence and in firepower—for example, in counterinsurgency operations. Published by Elsevier B.V.